Topic 3: Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting

Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting with Theoretically-Based Statistical Models

Lead PI: Dr. Wayne Schubert, Colorado State University

This project takes an alternate approach to coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling for the improvement of tropical cyclone intensity prediction. Theoretical and observational studies of the warm core development and oceanic influences on intensity will be used to guide improvements to a simplified dynamical system for prediction of tropical cyclone intensity changes. Balanced theory is applied to improve the understanding of inner core dynamical processes, including the relationship between the wind structure, diabatic heating and intensification. A geopotential tendency equation appropriate for tropical cyclones will be used to study rapid warm core development and rapid intensity changes. Ocean infrastructure influences are investigated using three dimensional analyses from an advanced ocean data assimilation and modeling system.

Number of Years: 3

Requested Funds: $718,525

Partners:

Naval Research Laboratory
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Achieving Superior Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts by Improving the Assimilation of High-Resolution Satellite Data into mesoscale Prediction Models

Lead PI: Dr. Chris Velden, University of Wisconsin-Madison

The overarching goal of this NOPP initiative is to improve the accuracy and reliability of TC intensity forecasts; to extend the lead time for these forecasts with increased certainty; and to increase confidence in these forecasts. The objectives include three major focus areas: improved prediction capability in the atmosphere-wave-ocean-land interfaces; tropical cyclone rapid intensification; and prediction of mesoscale phenomena in the TC system.

Number of Years: 3

Requested Funds: $1,288,279

Partners:

University of Miami, Rosentiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science
Naval Research Laboratory
National Center for Atmospheric Research
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Augmentation of Early Intensity Forecasting in Tropical Cyclones

Lead PI: Dr. J. Scott Tyo, University of Arizona

The goal of this project is to develop and test a remote-sensing technique, which has demostrated a capability to provide fully automated estimates of current intensity of tropical cyclones and also has potential to provide fully automated estimates of position as well as guidance for future intensification trends.

Number of Years: 3

Requested Funds: $786,551

Partners:

Naval Research Laboratory
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Data Assimilation and Predictability Studies for Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Lead PI: Dr. Takemasa Miyoshi, University of Maryland

In this project, an interdisciplinary team composed of experienced experts in the THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) observations, in modeling, and in advanced data assimilation with ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) will carry out experiments focused on the understanding and improving of the forecast of TC lifecycle evolution and intensity. This project focuses on both largescale environment and mesoscale phenomena in the TC system, which are major components responsible for intensity change, using several major codes already developed: the coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) known as CFES (CGCM for the Earth Simulator), the widely used mesoscale model known as WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting), and the LETKF (Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) that is probably the most advanced data assimilation method for realistic systems and that was coded and tested by PI Miyoshi at Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA). Because of high computational demands of this project, it is important to emphasize that all experiments with CFES will be carried out with the Earth Simulator, one of the largest supercomputer systems in Japan. Two major challenges in TC intensity forecasting are the general lack of observations in the vicinity of TCs and the adaptive representation of the forecast error covariance. In this project, both challenges will be addressed to improve TC intensity forecasting.

Number of Years: 3

Requested Funds: $618,202

Partners:

Naval Research Laboratory
Earth Simulator Center
National Central University, Taiwan
Shanghai Typhoon Institute

Impacts of Turbulence on Hurricane Intensity

Lead PI: Dr. Yongsheng Chen, York University

The study was conceived as a possible way to calculate the nature of radial turbulent diffusion in a TC through computation of the small-scale turbulence (i.e., a large eddy simulation or LES) using advanced numerical models applied to an idealized tropical cyclone. The PIs anticipate improvements in TC intensity forecasts by relatively high-resolution [horizontal grid spacing of O(1km)] numerical forecast models by developing a more physically based radial-diffusion parameterization. Collaboration between York University and NCAR will optimize the modeling effort (WRF model experience at York and NCAR, and high-resolution idealized modeling with CM1 at NCAR), and will also facilitate transfer of knowledge to real-data applications and other research projects (via advancements in the WRF model).

Number of Years: 3

Requested Funds: $363,568 (62.8% domestic, 37.2% foreign)

Partners:

National Center for Atmospheric Research

Initialization, Prediction and Diagnosis of the Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones using the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator, ACCESS

Lead PI: Dr. Michael Reeder, Monash University

The plan presented here describes a 4-part, inter-connected program of: (a) basic research into initialization of realistic TC structures using the state-of-the-art 4-dimensional variational data assimilation system (4D-VAR) from ACCESS (Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator), which is an implementation of the UK Meteorological Office’s NWP system, (b) very high-resolution forecast experiments on prediction of TC structure and intensity, with particular focus on Rapid Intensification, using ACCESS, (c) Diagnosis of the mechanisms of TC intensity and structure change (environmental influences, vortex structure, internal processes), and (d) transitioning of a validated TC assimilation and prediction system into operations, to provide forecast guidance on TC track, intensity and structure change.

Number of Years: 3

Requested Funds: $1,248,800 (15.4% domestic, 84.6% foreign)

Partners:

Naval Research Laboratory
Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

A Unified Air-Sea Interface for Fully Coupled Atmospheric-Wave-Ocean Models for Improving Intensity Prediction of Tropical Cyclones

Lead PI: Dr. Shuyi Chen, University of Miami, RSMAS, and Dr. Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island

The goals of this PI team are to understand the physical processes that control the air-sea interaction and their impacts on rapid intensity changes in tropical cyclones (TCs) and to develop a physically based and computationally efficient coupling at the air-sea interface for use in a multi-model system that can transition to the next generation of research and operational coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean-land models.

Number of Years: 3

Requested Funds: $2,111,753

Partners: