Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting with Theoretically-Based Statistical Models

Lead PI: Dr. Wayne Schubert, Colorado State University
Start Year: 2009 | Duration: 3 years
Partners: Naval Research Laboratory & National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

This project takes an alternate approach to coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling for the improvement of tropical cyclone intensity prediction. Theoretical and observational studies of the warm core development and oceanic influences on intensity will be used to guide improvements to a simplified dynamical system for prediction of tropical cyclone intensity changes. Balanced theory is applied to improve the understanding of inner core dynamical processes, including the relationship between the wind structure, diabatic heating and intensification. A geopotential tendency equation appropriate for tropical cyclones will be used to study rapid warm core development and rapid intensity changes. Ocean infrastructure influences are investigated using three dimensional analyses from an advanced ocean data assimilation and modeling system.

Annual PI Reports:
FY 2010 PI Report
FY 2011 PI Report
FY 2012 PI Report